1999年02月28日
Shumpei KUMON
There are two aspects to the information revolution that is sweeping our world today. One represents the arrival of the third wave of modernization. Modernization, as progress in humankind's ability to achieve its goals, started out with the wave of military empowerment, followed by the second wave of industrialization, or economic empowerment. What is emerging now is the next wave -- that of "informatization," or intellectual empowerment.
The era of militarization saw the creation of sovereign states, each of which competed with one another to enhance its clout in the international community. Sovereign states acquired new subjects and territories through wars, and tried to build national power through diplomatic efforts.
In the era of industrialization, newly emerged industrial enterprises accumulated anddemonstrated wealth in the global market. These enterprises turned factory-made goods and services into wealth by selling them under the market mechanism. Now, the era of informatization is witnessing the birth of new entities that should be defined as "information intelprises." These will engage in competition to acquire and demonstrate intellectual influence in a new arena that may be termed the "intelplace." These intelprises will try to expand their influence by sharing their knowledge and information on the intelplace.
In the process of industrialization, the market served as a platform for other social activities such as medical service and education. Likewise, the intelplace will serve as a platform for political, administrative and business activities. The Internet, as we know, is today a primitive form of the intelplace. Just as sovereign states survived industrialization, neither states nor industrial enterprises will be swept away by the coming wave of informatization. Instead, they will continue to develop further by playing mutual, supplementary roles with the newly emerging intelprises.
It is fairly possible, however, that the nature of sovereign states will change in the era of informatization. In particular, the quest for bigger international presence, on which states have so far been intent, will become totally meaningless. Still, competition by industrial enterprises to accumulate and show off their wealth will not only continue but will accelerate.
The second aspect of informatization is in fact the third revolution of industrialization, which is focused on information and telecommunication services, following the second industrial revolution which saw the rapid development of the heavy machinery and chemical sectors. The information-communication revolution began in the 1950s with the introduction of mainframe computers. Then came the downsizing of computers in the late 1970s. People often consider this the era of personal computers, but it is more aptly called the era of microchips.
Today, the number of PCs in use worldwide is estimated at a modest 300 million, but the number of microchips is said to reach up to 70 billion. Microchips are far more widespread than PCs in terms of numbers. They are everywhere, in every corner of a variety of machines and equipment, supporting all aspects of people's everyday lives -- from manufacturing to consumption. Today, the information-communication revolution is maturing, led by the United States. Computers in the past were used more or less independently of each other, but the new era will see a network of computers operating as a huge system in itself. Each component, in the form of a variety of information equipment, will be either carried by people or incorporated into products. They will be connected via ultra-wide band optical fibers or radio waves and work together to engage in endless communication and collaboration.
Difficulties remain for that dream to come true. Not a few programs used in existing mainframe machines and microchips are unprepared for the Year 2000 problem, and it is impossible at this moment to exterminate all "millennium bugs" by Jan. 1, 2000. For a fairly long time to come, various aspects of our social life will continue to be affected by this headache.
Having said this, I must say that Japan has lagged substantially behind other industrialized nations, both in joining the global wave of informatization and in coping with the millennium bug problem.
Perhaps the biggest reason is the fact that Japan was too successful in its efforts to catch up with the rest of the world in the maturing stage of the second industrial revolution. Modern Japan started out way behind others in terms of industrialization. Pre-World War II Japan failed to shift the focus of its economy from military demand to private-sector demand. It was unable to stir up or satisfy consumer demand until it was finally defeated by the Allied Powers and placed under U.S. Occupation forces.
Learning from lessons of past failure, postwar Japan concentrated its energy on pursuing peace and economic prosperity, and became highly successful in the maturing stage of the second industrial revolution, which for Japan, began in 1950 and lasted until 1975. However, Japan did not seem fully aware that its postwar economic growth coincided with the breakthrough stage of the third industrial revolution, or the information revolution. I should rather say that, though Japan was quick to see the signs, its awareness faded. Japan in the late 1960s saw various "future" studies flourish, and Japan was ahead of the world in discussing the coming information age. Key words and phrases such as "informatization," "information industry" and "information society" were not imported, but originally coined in Japanese.
But the dollar's devaluation and the normalization of U.S.-China diplomatic relations by U.S. President Richard Nixon and the oil crises that hit Japan in the 1970s, which terminated the era of rapid economic growth, changed all that. Instead of promoting informatization, Japan tried to cope with the new situation by downsizing, cutting energy consumption and stepping up efforts toward the mass production and export of goods. In other words, Japan continued to pursue the second industrial revolution, and again, it was extremely successful.
When the New Media boom arrived in the 1980s, Japan focused not so much on the business use of information technology than on utilizing the technology in mass-consumption industries. The nation's high-tech resources were lavishly poured into the development of high-definition TVs rather than digital TVs in broadcasting, ISDN lines rather than the Internet in the telecommunications field, as well as video games and karaoke machines. The essence of Japan's information technology can be seen in the up-to-date machines at pachinko parlors, which became the largest industry sector during the maturing stage of the second industrial revolution.
However, these mass-consumption service industries, no matter how "informatized" they may be, are characterized by the same features of typical past service industries. In other words, the information consumed is basically created by professional providers, thus leaving consumers in a "passive" position.
However, crucial points of difference are emerging, as can been seen, for example, with cellular phones. Mobile phones as a means of two-way communication have exploded in popularity in recent years. Today's youths, who are spending more and more time on such communication, are responsible for its "content" simply by chatting with friends. They are thus spending less time watching television, playing games or singing karaoke. By the time they and their children account for a large part of Japan's population, even the mighty pachinko industry may be on the decline. Future toys will include videophones and next-generation high-speed Internet service that will enable them to freely search, edit and transmit video images of their own creation.
Some may argue that Japan's industrial sectors did try to utilize information technology for business purposes. In fact, Japan was ahead of the rest of the world in the field of numerically controlled machines and industrial robots. Still, it appears that these automated machines were not the mainstay business of the third industrial revolution, which focused on information and communication.
Japan lagged far behind others in the fields of data communication and the Internet, especially in the development and business utilization of advanced information-communication technologies, such as the Internet protocol network for broadcast and communication use. Now that gap has become evident. While the U.S. and European economies were said to have reached a new phase of long-term growth in the 1990s, Japan alone was mired in a prolonged slump, suffering from huge fiscal deficits, financial uncertainties and sluggish investment in the information sector.
Since modernization began with the Meiji Restoration, Japan's economy has experienced cyclical ups and downs, each phase lasting about 30 years. I believe that the nation entered its third long-term downtrend following the mid-1970s. There appears to be a time lag between society's recognition of major changes in internal and external circumstances surrounding Japan, and its reaction to those changes. If my assumption is correct, we may have to wait several more years until the next full-scale upward phase begins.
At the same time, past history shows that Japan's strength lies not so much in its power to move ahead of competitors to pioneer a new trend, as in its efforts to catch up from behind. Full-scale informatization in Japan may well begin simultaneously as the nation's economy greets the next upward phase.
Shumpei Kumon is executive director of the International University of Japan's Global Communication Center (Glocom).
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