Though it is probably not necessary to explain the Y2K problem to readers of our monthly newsletter, let's run through some of the basic points once again.
In the 1950s and 1960s, when computer memory was a scarce commodity, programmers were motivated to do what they could to conserve as much memory as possible for actual processing chores. One convention that eventually took hold throughout the computer industry was that of expressing four-digit years using their last two digits. This practice gradually became widespread and eventually everyone began to take it for granted. Of course, many people in the industry were well aware that the two-digit convention would conceivably lose its value once the year 2000 arrived. In other words, they were attune to the possibility that computers would either be unable to distinguish between the years 1900 and 2000 or misinterpret the year "00" as 1900 and not 2000. Or, that some computers might prove unable to accept "00" as legitimate data for a date field and reject it as an error. Another possibility is for the computer to misinterpret "00" as the value for a programmable interrupt causing an endless loop waiting for the next coded instructions to be inputted. These potential problems have all earned the designation as the year 2000 problem (or the millennium bug).
However, the programming community in those days reasoned that because the year 2000 was several decades away, future generations of computers and software would certainly contain the necessary remedial measures fixing these potential shortcomings. In fact, few members of that community probably even entertained the notion that the human race would exist until the turn of the century. In those days, the prospect of an all-out nuclear war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union was a probable and imminent threat.
Humanity has somehow managed to avoid a nuclear holocaust. Instead, the Cold War between the U.S. and Soviet Union has faded away. (Of course, the threat of nuclear proliferation and localized nuclear conflicts remain, however, that is another issue.) Computer programs have multiplied in number and instead of being reprogrammed from scratch, most were simply patched up or adopted as the foundation for new software packages. On top of that, the chip industry went on producing and utilizing microchips that were not year-2000 ready for embedded components in the circuitry for a vast array of machinery and electronic devices. As a consequence, on a global scale the millennium bug has been locked into billions of lines of computer code and burned into anywhere from 20 to 50 billion microchips, and hence, the systems on which they run. The Y2K problem is the generic expression for the plethora of potential problems that could arise as a result of the failure to address and "exterminate" the bug.
By the late 1980s, several commentators had already pointed out that unless appropriate countermeasures were implemented, the Y2K problem could ultimately develop into a serious social problem. During the mid-1990s, this awareness spread across the computer industry, prompting efforts to address the issue. (However, it was much later--during the latter half of the 1990s--that people began to realize the inherent danger presented by systems outfitted with bug-ridden microchips.)
By the 1990's computers and microchip-mounted systems were in use everywhere. In fact, not limited to government and industry, practically every aspect of daily life has become dependent upon computers. Despite this reality--or indeed, precisely because of it--literally everyone, including government bureaucrats outside the information systems field, corporate executives, managers, the average computer user, and citizens at large, apparently took it for granted that given the universal prevalence of computers, something would be done to address and fix this basic flaw. No one was prepared to take seriously the notion that the Y2K problem might eventually develop into a social problem of major proportions. As a result, steps to address the issue itself remained limited in scope.
As the 1990's ticked away, a growing number of people began to express the fear that it was too late to do anything. The fallout from the Y2K problem appeared inescapable, and some individuals and communities began preparing for disaster (e.g., by moving to rural areas, stockpiling supplies of food and fuel, or pursuing a path of self-sufficiency). Early this year, Ed Yourdan and his daughter Jennifer published Time Bomb 2000 (Japanese translation published by Prentice Hall), a book geared for the general audience. Some sources state that the Yourdans vacated their New York City residence and moved to a rural location soon after their book went to the press. Susumi Adachi, one of the first people to draw attention to the Y2K problem in Japan commented on this move on his web page (www.y2kjapan.com) as follows (Adachi is the author of konpyuuta seireki 2000 nen mondai no shougeki (The impact of the Computer's Year 2000 Problem), published by Jitsugyo no nihonsha in 1996):
In February 1998, a certain veteran software programmer vacated his Manhattan residence in New York and relocated to a rustic New Mexico city named Taos. This gentleman, left stating that,'New York would become Beirut!' His name was none other than Ed Yourdan, one of America's most celebrated programmers, the author of more than 20 books chiefly on programming techniques. His move to Taos followed almost immediately after the publication of 'Time Bomb 2000', a cautionary treatise on the impending year 2000 issue which he co-authored with his daughter, Jennifer, a trained economist. Several of Yourdan's books have been translated into Japanese, and his readership in Japan is already quite extensive. As most people know, the Lebanese capital of Beirut was reduced to rubble by years of civil war. It is doubtful that Yourdan with his admonition is actually suggesting that the buildings of Manhattan will also come crumbling down. Rather, I suspect that he is expressing the fear that by the year 2000, computerized systems installed in many buildings will begin to malfunction and that Manhattan as a viable city will cease to exist. Whatever the motive, Yourdan's move from New York was an act drawing public attention to the significance of the Y2K issue for American cities.
As this is being written, 1998 is coming to a close forcing home the conclusion that it is already too late to do anything about the Y2K bug. In fact, that is now the official assessment of the U.S. government, one of the first governments to recognize the Y2K problem and take action to address it. In a gesture aimed at boosting U.S. public awareness of Y2K and the need for measures to deal with it, President Bill Clinton declared the week beginning October 19 "National Y2K Action Week." Furthermore, the U.S. enacted legislation requiring the disclosure of information on anticipated dangers of the Y2K problem and steps to deal with them.
In May this year, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released a progress report concerning the lethargic pace of U.S. government action despite the growing atmosphere of alarm. Sections of that report are discussed below.
President Clinton has inaugurated a Year 2000 Conversion Council with the mission of assisting efforts to convert the federal government's information systems to year 2000-ready status. The Office of Management and Budget has been working closely with that council to monitor the progress of measures toward addressing the year 2000 issue, and has released its findings in a quarterly report. In May 1998, the OMB issued its fifth report, which is summarized as follows:
Overview
- As of May 1998, the federal government had 7336 mission-critical information systems in operation government-wide.
- Of those, 40 percent are now Year 2000 compliant, 42 percent are still being repaired, 14 percent are still being replaced, and 4 percent will be retired.
- An estimated 500 billion yen will be required to cover the total cost of conversion.
- Of 24 government departments or agencies that have submitted progress reports, six have not shown enough progress, nine have demonstrated progress but are in need of additional monitoring, and another nine have shown adequate progress.
Progress by agency grouping
- Group 1: the six agencies that have not shown enough progress
Department of Defense, Department of Education, Department of Energy, Department of Health and Welfare, Department of Transportation, and the Agency for International Development (AID)- Group 2: the nine agencies that have demonstrated progress but are in need of additional monitoring
Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Department of Interior, Department of Justice, Department of Labor, Department of State, Department of the Treasury, and the Department of Health and Human Services.- Group 3: the nine agencies that have shown adequate progress
Veteran Affairs, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), General Services Administration (GSA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Nuclear Regulatory Commission, National Science Foundation (NSF), Small Business Administration (SBA), and Social Security AgencyThe following assessments apply if all the government offices listed above are taken into consideration together.
Total percentage of systems that are year-2000 compliant: 40 percent
Percentage of systems where renovation has been completed: 55 percent
Percentage of systems where implementation has been completed: 27 percentThe U.S. government has established the following Y2K readiness completion timetable.
- Completion of renovation by: Sept. 1998
- Completion of validation: Jan. 1999
- Completion of implementation: March 1999
As of March 31, 1999, renovation will not be finished on all the information systems currently run by seven government departments (namely, the Departments of Agriculture, Defense, Health and Human Services, Interior, Transportation, Treasury and State). Accordingly, given the likelihood of a Y2K impacting the operation of systems in some form it is necessary to establish a set of contingency plans.
General Tasks for the Federal Government
Additional Y2K-related problems of concern for the federal government.
- Telecommunications security: 90 percent of all PBX systems owned by GSA are already compliant. Also, 247 local telephone companies that have service contracts with federal institutions are being queried as to the readiness of those systems.
- Biomedical and laboratory equipment: Over 16,000 manufacturers of biomedical and laboratory equipment are currently being examined. Personnel responsible for this task will conceivably find it useful to post information on the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) web site (http://www.fda.gov/cdrh/yr2000).
- Y2K readiness and Building Systems (Elevators and security systems)While over 6000 installations are under investigation, only 5 percent or so are identified as non-compliant.
Priority Challenges at the Departmental Level
- The Department of Defense faces a particularly tough task because many of the information systems it runs are huge in scale, overseas, and include weapons systems dependent on embedded microchip circuitry. In fact, this department is considered to have the largest number of systems in need of renovation: 2803 (compared to 1080 at the Department of Agriculture, 630 at the Department of Transportation, 472 at the Department of State, 411 at the Department of Energy, and 323 at the Department of the Treasury). As of May 1998, 29 percent of all mission-critical systems have been declared compliant. This is not a significant improvement from the 24 percent level reached during the previous quarter.
- The Department of Health and Human Services will face problems with health insurance and Medicare that place importance on accurate date management. It is now striving to determine how well-prepared its contracted service providers are to deal with the Y2K problem.
- The Department of Transportation has also been slow to act. As of May 1998, only 7.4 percent of its mission-critical systems were Y2K compliant. In particular, the backbone network linking the Federal Aviation Administration's flight-control computer system needs to be replaced entirely. It will also be difficult if not impossible to upgrade the software that runs the Coast Guard's Maritime Safety Information System.
Considering that this is the pace set by the federal government, one can only imagine how slow progress has been at the local government and corporate levels. (Needless to say, Japan's government has yet to start making information of this kind public.)
In brief, the problem here is that many systems have their operating software programmed into embedded hardware chip packages (e.g., microchips, firmware, micro-controllers) that will be difficult to replace or rewrite. These invisible electronic guardians have found their way into practically every facet of life. Consider the following list (source: Michael Hyatt, The Millennium Bug; Bungei Shunju, 1998).
Answering machines, cellular phones, desktop computers, facsimile machines, notebook PCs, copiers, still cameras and video cameras, telephone systems, time clocks, voice-mail systems
Air-conditioning systems, emergency exit signs and power generators, building management systems, security alarm devices, cable-TV systems, electronic lock systems, elevators and escalators, fire-prevention systems, heating and ventilation systems, lighting systems, deposit boxes and safes, security cameras, sprinkler systems, monitoring and crime prevention systems, switchboard systems
Automated assembly lines, bottle-filling plants, CAD systems, energy-control systems, production systems, nuclear power stations, oil-refining and storage-terminal facilities, power transmission grids, robots, switching systems, date and time recorders, water supply and sewage systems
Air-traffic control systems, aircraft, automated check-in systems, automobiles, carry-on bag processing, buses, parking meters, command-and-control systems, emergency equipment, boats, passenger information systems, video monitoring systems, radar systems, signaling systems, high-speed cameras and radar-search equipment, token sales systems and dispensers, traffic signals, trains
Cable systems, global positioning systems (GPS), receivers, satellites, telephone switching stations
Automated teller machines, credit card authentication systems, credit card systems, deposit boxes and safes
Automatic infusion apparatus, pacemakers, CT scanning equipment, assorted monitoring systems, ultrasonography equipment, radiographic equipment
automatic sprinkler systems, microwave ovens, video machines, central heating and cooling systems
As indicated earlier, by some estimates, anywhere from 20 to 50 billion microchip-based systems are in use worldwide. Of that total, we can assume that about 3 percent (at least 600 million) contain real-time clocks (RTCs) that are synchronized with the actual date. Now, suppose that about 1 percent of those (6 million) are at risk of being affected by the year-2000 bug. Finally, assume that 1 percent of the systems at risk (i.e., 60,000) could trigger major damage or disasters if they malfunctioned (for instance, the microchip-embedded circuitry controlling power stations, railway network traffic, oil pipelines in tundra belts, undersea phone cables, or communications satellites). By this conservative estimate alone, one might argue that at least 60,000 major accidents will likely occur worldwide at the beginning of the year 2000. If only 10 percent of those accidents occurred in Japan, the sum would still be a significant 6000. Needless to say, it would be extremely difficult if not impossible to effectively deal with an almost simultaneous outbreak of that many accidents or disasters nationwide. Incidentally, the Gartner Research Group estimates that, as many as 50 million embedded microchip systems will give error readings for year 2000 dates during 1999.
In addition to the quantity of problems, the embedded-microchip problem has a qualitative aspect. That is to say, it will be incredibly difficult to find every chip, determine which system functions it will affect or what harm awaits that system as a whole and decide in advance as to what should be done to avert these problems. It is literally impossible to repair or replace each and every faulty chip embedded into the circuitry of undersea, airborne, or underground systems. This is why we have to admit that it is already "too late."
What can be expected to happen when the year 2000 arrives? Following are some of the views on that subject expressed by Amb. David L. Aaron, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Under-Secretary for International Trade, at 'the Year 2000 Summit' that convened in London this past October 16.
According to Under-Secretary Aaron, a recent Coast Guard survey found that at least 20 percent of all systems currently used by businesses in the U.S. shipbuilding industry were at risk of being affected by the Millennium bug. According to another estimate, 25 percent of all shipping companies worldwide stand to suffer heavy losses as a consequence of the Y2K problem. World trade involves many active players, including producers, sellers, buyers and an elaborately complicated mesh of distribution and delivery networks. These are all supported in turn by customs facilities, port and harbor terminals, and cargo unloading and distribution systems. Furthermore, everything depends on an extensive array of effectively functioning infrastructure, from electric power, petroleum, and gas to communications, transportation links and financial systems. If one link in this intricate web was to break, the impact on world trade would be tremendous. That event would likely deal a direct blow to the global economy, which has only recently begun to shake the effects of a protracted recession. The threat seems particularly momentous for the U.S., given that 90 percent of all international cargo passing through U.S. ports is handled by small operators, many of whom have not shielded themselves from the potential effects of the millennium bug. Furthermore, less than half of the large companies who claim they are year 2000 compliant (96 percent) have a contingency plan of any kind in place to deal with unexpected problems. The Gartner Research Group estimates that two-thirds of all developing countries with which the U.S. has trade ties will likely suffer damage to at least one mission-critical system. Under-Secretary Aaron was most alarmed by the lack of awareness concerning the actual severity of this situation. He concluded his address with the following statement:
"Events that have caused manufacturing and supply chain disruptions in the past include labor strikes, breakdowns in communications systems, power outages, and even natural disasters, such as earthquakes and floods. Multiply the effects of these examples by a few thousand, and you may get an idea of what could happen on a global scale if the Y2K issue is not taken seriously by the world's trading nations."
Actually, other sources, including books and Internet web sites too numerous to mention, predict that even worse consequences are in store. Consider the following excerpt, from What Will Become of Us? Counting Down to y2k, a document recently published by the International Crisis Management Center:
"Because our civilization waited too late to begin the Y2K repair process, every developed nation will fall into a seven-to-eight-year economic collapse followed by a slow, delayed, awkward recovery. Computer professionals will continue to make heroic efforts to get hardware and software ready for 2000. By the third quarter of 1999, many project leaders, including those with electric utilities, railroads and government services will admit defeat, and will brace for the worst. The only families likely to be untouched by Y2K are some geographically remote Mennonite and Amish farm households, and those urban families who prepared themselves to live independently of computer technology in rural locations. Every other family will be touched by loss of income and serious local disturbances in services, utilities, the economy, and the fiber society. Families who are unprepared will be at risk for hunger, disease and lasting hardship. Fear of the future will increase every year until some light is seen at the end of the tunnel in 2006." (p. 113)
As already pointed out, if one bears in mind the troubles posed by embedded chips, it seems impossible to effectively prepare for the millennium bug. The attempt itself will demand an endless trail of monotonous studies, repairs, and tests. There will be a colossal investment in time and money. Dealing with the problem on an individual basis will not be enough because individuals will need to deal with the fallout attributable to others who were lax about assuming their responsibility. Of course, it will be even more difficult to offset the damages that accrue as a result of acting too slowly.
That is because it will be virtually impossible to estimate, with any precision when or where the damage will occur, what that damage will be and how long it will last. To put it another way, the scope of predictable damage is so broad that it is not at all clear where forecasters should place their focus. Although, the disruption or breakdown in social lifeline areas should be given strong consideration, the nature of any countermeasures for urban areas will differ depending on predictions about the security of the electric power supply. The same can be said about potential breakdowns in communication and transportation links. Countermeasures will also vary significantly depending on the timing and scale of anticipated slowdowns in manufacturing, trade and commerce. Indeed, it is practically impossible to prepare for the worst because we do not know for certain what difficulties the Y2K problem will trigger.
To be sure, acting in line with predictions and preparing for potential disaster will in turn demand that many of us adopt lifestyles quite different from those we have grown accustomed to up to now. In fact, most people are likely to disregard this notion hand or angrily denounce it as being preposterous. Others may even fall into a state of panic the instant they accept that the argument makes sense. These considerations will likely compound the difficulties involved in deciding on appropriate strategies of disclosure.
Ultimately, as George Gilder suggested, we will not be able to deal with the millennium bug or problems in any decisive fashion until we replace our existing information and communications systems entirely with something new.
Whatever measures are taken to address this situation, certainly national governments must have an instrumental role to play. If nothing else, it is absolutely imperative that government functions not be allowed to decay. Even in the U.S., a country with a long tradition of distrust towards governmental involvement, there is vocal support for the view that the government should assume a leading role in times such as these. National governments should put less urgent issues on the back burner and devote all their attention to the task of eradicating the millennium bug and addressing the Y2K problem.
Given their responsibilities of contributing to public welfare, local governments will have an even more important role to play. Having studied the Y2K issue in some depth and for quite some time, I am finally convinced that the 21st century will be an Age of the Community. Over the next few years, I believe we will see many local governments and particularly their top officials, confronted with a dilemma and making some tough decisions. Despite much opposition from a sizable share of the electorate they will need to implement these decisions.
In the final analysis, it will be individuals--you and I--who must deal with the Y2K problem face-to-face. Everyone--individuals, families, companies, communities--will have no choice but to act responsibly in keeping with their decisions to protect their own lives and well-being.